Argus Research has become the latest Wall Street outfit to provide a bullish outlook on Moderna (MRNA) following the company’s positive late-stage trial results for a cancer vaccine.
On Aug. 19, Moderna announced that that a personalized mRNA vaccine for melanoma, co-developed with Merck (MRK) using on the mRNA technology that powered its COVID-19 shots, met its primary end goal in a Phase III clinical trial. Intismeran, when taken in concert with Merck’s Keytruda (pembrolizumab), was was found to be more effective at reducing the risk of cancer returning in melanoma patients than just Keytruda alone.
The results open a pathway for Moderna and Merck to pursue U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval, with some oncologists saying the drug could become available by early 2027.
The news sent MRNA stock more than 125% higher last week and triggered multiple upgrades to Moderna, which has spent the past few years in a steep decline from its COVID-era peak. And on Friday morning, Argus Research joined the chorus of bulls, expecting additional upside even after last week’s breakthrough news.
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Argus Research Upgrades MRNA Stock to Buy
Argus Research analyst Jasper Hellweg says that while MRNA shares are 70% below their all-time highs and have underperformed their benchmarks for years, “the tide is turning.”
“Given the positive initial results of the melanoma study, management has updated its estimated timeline for a potential approval to 2027, accelerating our expectations for the company to achieve a return to stable growth,” Hellweg says. “Because confirmatory data could drive further growth in the price of the MRNA shares, we believe that a Buy rating is now appropriate.”
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Moderna and Merck plan to seek out FDA approval based on the drug’s results, though they haven’t announced a specific filing date. But intismeran will be going after a share of a currently $2 billion to $3 billion U.S. melanoma therapeutics market that’s growing at about 10% annually.
“The principal differentiation is the ability to tailor the vaccine to mutations in each patient’s tumor and combine it with established checkpoint inhibition, although individualized manufacturing remains a commercial and operational consideration,” Hellweg says. “We believe peak annual sales could reach $4-$7 billion if the melanoma indication launches successfully and efficacy extends into additional tumor types.”
| Nvidia (NVDA): Quick Stats | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $5.5 trillion |
| Dividend yield | 0.5% |
| Forward price-to-earnings (P/E) | 24.27 |
| Price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) | 0.59 |
| Source: Yahoo! Finance. Data is as of Aug. 27, 2026. | |
Intismeran is also being developed to treat non-small-cell lung cancer, bladder cancer, and renal cell carcinoma. Hellweg notes that the drug is in nine Phase II and Phase III trials across multiple tumor types.
Thus, intismeran has the potential to blow open its commercialized-product doors wide open. Moderna develops therapeutics and vaccines based on messenger RNA to treat infectious and cardiovascular diseases. Its current products include two COVID-19 vaccines, an influenza vaccine, a combination flu/COVID-19 vaccine, and an RSV vaccine. That flu vaccine is the first such mRNA-based product approved in the U.S. and earned the green light just a few weeks ago. Its COVID-19 vaccines, updated for 2026-27, were also recently approved.
Hellweg’s new price target of $180 implies 26% upside from Thursday’s closing price of $142.77.
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William Blair was among the other analyst firms to upgrade MRNA’s stock after the intismeran announcement. “Intismeran is the only product to date to show RFS/DFMS benefit over pembrolizumab monotherapy standard of care in this population and is critical for Moderna to diversify top-line revenue from infectious disease vaccines,” they said. “We are upgrading shares to Outperform from Market Perform given that we believe Moderna has a clear line of sight to revenue diversification from the COVID business now.”
Even after several price-target and ratings upgrades, however, Wall Street’s broader view of MRNA stock remains lukewarm. The company currently has just five Buy calls against 16 Holds and one Sell, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. And their average price target of $106.63 actually represents 25% downside from current levels.
Goldman Sachs, for instance, remained Neutral-rated after the announcement. “In our view, success in melanoma was priced in, with MRNA shares trading +100% now reflecting readthrough to other solid tumor indications (per nine ongoing intismeran studies,” Goldman Sachs analyst Salveen Richter wrote on Aug. 19. While she notes that “this data is the initial unlock for MRNA’s cancer vertical” and upgraded her price target from $67 to $120, that’s still 16% below its Thursday close.
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